All election week articles are published anonymously to protect our student journalists 

Note: this article was written before election night; as such, some of the predictions and content may be outdated. However, we have chosen to publish the article all the same to highlight the contrast between predicted outcomes and the finalized results. Sources cited will also have their own biases and leans, so proceed with this information in mind. 

    Picture this: you are running for student council president. You hang posters, petition the younger grades and even bribe using candy during lunchtime. As a candidate in any election, it is important to be mindful of your strengths and weaknesses. 

    Every person will be liked more or less by different groups of people based on personality, extracurriculars, and even appearance. A top athlete will be more popular with other athletes. An NHS officer may be able to appeal to other NHS members. An upperclassman with younger siblings may even be more popular with the younger grades.

    The idea is that politics is a game, a delicate balance between popularity and purpose. In other words, in order to win and be able to make changes, you must have ideas that are popular while also having a clear action plan. 

     On a much broader scale, the two major presidential candidates have groups of people that they poll strongly with and other groups that as a whole may not want anything to do with them, and that is the nature of politics.

      It shouldn’t surprise anyone that Kamala Harris pools better with women. As the first woman vice president, she gained popularity through her strong advocacy of women’s rights. According to The 19th News, about 48% of women poll in favor of Harris. According to the same source, Donald Trump leads as far as men are concerned, holding 47% of their vote when polled against Harris and third-party options. Eighty-eight percent of nonbinary-identifying voters poll in favor of Harris, 11% undecided or choosing to vote 3rd party. 

      The same source claimed that Vice President Harris is projected to win 79% of the African-American vote as well as 61.5% of the Latino vote based off of current poll results. President Trump, on the other hand, is projected to win over 56% of white Americans.

      “Regular folks… are not concerned with a lot of things, but they are concerned about eight dollar eggs, five dollar gas, 7% interest rates,” said economic guru, Dave Ramsey. “This inflation thing’s a big deal.”

      In a recent New York Times poll of Pennsylvania working class voters, Trump led against Harris, 53% to 38%. Many of the PA working class are from rural Appalachia, a region that is solidly red. Working class America is hit first by inflation and a poor economy. 

      It is a general rule that as a generation ages, they begin to vote more conservatively. This could be due to a number of factors. One such factor is the fact that social progressivism seeks to move “forward,” always in a more enlightened direction, leaving a generation gap between voters. 

      60% of Americans ages 18-29 years old favor a Harris presidency over a Trump presidency. Trump is more favorable to a more mature audience. 55% of voting Americans over the age of 55 would prefer a Trump presidency to a Harris presidency. 

      American Christians are split in this election. 61% of Protestants and 52% of Catholics are in favor of a Trump presidency. Of white evangelical Protestants 82% favor a Trump, while 86% of black Protestants would prefer a Harris presidency. White mainline Protestants are more narrowly divided than the aforementioned Protestant groups, with only 58% of the Republican nominee. 

       Two-thirds of Jewish individuals polled favor Harris. The religiously unaffiliated of the nation also side with Harris by a wide margin of 31%. 85% of atheists favor a Harris presidency. Self-identified agnostics poll similarly. 

       Campaign ads and recent publicity from both sides of the aisle are aimed at waning support in places where each candidate aspires to poll higher in. For example, Trump feels that the working class vote is attainable for him as the current vice president who’s been in office for the last four years was given the misfortune of presiding over a poor economy. This is why his platform heralds economic change. This is also why he spent some time working in a PA McDonald’s. 

       Harris and Walz have posed while drinking beer and hunting to appeal to men. In Vance’s October debate performance, he seemed almost apologetic about his pro-life stance. This appealed to women voters, a demographic who has taken more of an interest in electing the first female president. 

       As of Tuesday, October 29th, Donald Trump is up 1.0 points in the key battleground states, beating Harris in 6 of the 7. Kamala still pools higher in Michigan, but by a thin margin. Trump holds Georgia and Arizona tightly, however Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin lean right by less than a point. 

       Trump also holds 50.1% percent of the popular vote. (Up +0.1 point) This day in 2016, Hillary Clinton held a 4.6 point lead in the popular vote over Trump, yet Trump still won the electoral college. In 2020, Biden was up 7.4 points. 2020 proved to be one of the most divisive election results in our history, due to alleged falsifying of ballots, all due to its slim margins. 

        Nonetheless, by the time this article is released, many of the official ballots have most likely come in and a victor is probably guaranteed, but these are the numbers behind why that winner was elected.